اثرات بارشی و خشکسالی النینو بر جنوب غرب آسیا

Asia Fall Forecast 2015: El Nino to Boost West Pacific Typhoons, Intensify Drought From India to Indonesia

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist

September 9, 2015; 4:22 AM ET

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Typhoons and building drought will impact more than one billion people in southeastern Asia this fall.

JUMP TO: Number of Super Typhoons May Challenge Record | Monsoon to Wind Down Quickly; Drought to Spread from Papua New Guinea to India | Warmth in Store for Much of Asia

Typhoons will threaten areas from Japan and eastern China to the Philippines during part of the fall, while building drought can lead to hardship from central India to Indonesia.

Number of Super Typhoons May Challenge Record

The 2015 typhoon season is on pace to surpass average numbers, but could challenge the record number of typhoons and super typhoons since 1959, due in a large part to El Niño.

El Niño is forecast to remain strong through the fall and will keep waters warmer than average in the part of the Pacific Ocean where tropical systems usually develop. The rising air in this region leads to a high probability of tropical system formation.

During 1965 and 1997 seasons, there were 11 super typhoons. AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting nine super typhoons this year, which will be the third most active season on record. This number is up two from the May prediction, due to the high number of super typhoons thus far (six).

According to AccuWeather International Meteorologist Anthony Sagliani, "We could challenge the record of 11 super typhoons and 20 typhoons, if we have a very active late season this year."

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/asia-fall-forecast-2015-el-nino-typhoons-india-drought/52075743